The tool we wanted didn’t exist, so we built it
- Jacob Brower
- May 14
- 3 min read
We didn’t launch What’s Likely to be bold. We did it because standing still wasn’t an option.
Most agencies double down on what’s already working. Once they find a service that sells or a style that gets attention, they build a fence around it and ride it out as long as the market allows.
Archer’s Bow has never really worked that way. From the beginning, our shop has been the place people come when they want to ask better questions — when they’re not looking for the obvious or expected answer. Strategy, story, psychology — we’ve always worked at the intersection of those things. And now, with What’s Likely, we’re formalizing something we’ve been doing (albeit less efficiently) behind the scenes for years.
It’s not a campaign. It’s not a website or a tagline. It’s a forecasting model — one that uses behavioral insight to predict which choices are most likely to lead to a favorable outcome. That might sound like a departure, but it’s not. It’s just a sharper, more focused version of the work we’ve always done: helping people make smarter, better-informed decisions.
It started as an internal tool — something to sharpen our own decision-making on strategy, messaging, pricing, and positioning. But the more we tested it, the more we realized how widely it could apply. So we built it out.
And no — it’s not replacing Archer’s Bow or ABM Strategies. We’re still offering the same advertising, marketing, strategic, and behavioral services we always have. In fact, we’re stronger than ever now that the What’s Likely model exists. It’s not a departure from what we’ve done — it’s a reinforcement. The same thinking, now with sharper tools.
If we hadn’t built it, someone else eventually would have. We just wanted to make sure it was done right.
Nothing like this exists — not in this exact form. You can dig up actionable data — if you’ve spent years collecting it and know where to look. You can hire a strategist or a coach. You can even run a simulation. But there’s no other tool that combines lived experience, behavioral modeling, and decision-based data through a carefully calibrated forecasting engine — and delivers real-world probability estimates in plain English.
We’re still helping brands get seen. But now we’re just as invested in helping people see their decisions more clearly — whether they’re weighing a career move, testing a pricing strategy, or trying to figure out how to move forward when the stakes are high and the variables are messy.
This isn’t about being right all the time. It’s about knowing which direction gives you the best shot at getting it right. And that’s a question we’ve always been obsessed with.
We didn’t launch What’s Likely to be bold. We did it because standing still — watching the same patterns repeat, watching people overthink themselves into worse outcomes — wasn’t something we were willing to keep doing.
Sometimes the most logical step just happens to look bold in hindsight.
Jacob Brower is president of Archer’s Bow Media & Marketing and ABM Strategies, and serves as chief strategist at What’s Likely. A former award-winning investigative journalist and current consultant, he’s spent his career asking sharp questions, spotting patterns, and building tools that see around corners. He’s served as a chief executive for 12 years, including the past 7 leading Archer’s Bow.
